Momo Play

  

Categories: Managed Funds

When we see the word “momo,” maybe we picture that creepy YouTube/Whatsapp urban legend bird-legged woman sculpture thing. Or maybe we think of South Asian steamed dumplings and start to get kind of hungry.

But in the trading world, “momo” has nothing to do with spooky sculptures or steamed dumplings. It’s short for “momentum,” and a “momo play” is basically a trade—or play—executed to capitalize on momentum (momo).

Momo play fans really aren’t looking at anything other than momentum. The thinking is this: if a stock is shooting up very quickly, it’s probably going to continue to go up, at least in the short-term. And if it’s dropping, it’s probably going to continue to go down, at least for a little while. We don’t need to know anything else about the stock or the company to execute a momo play; all we’re concerned about is the direction and momentum of the stock.

If this is making a few people out there a little nervous, we can see why. It’s not exactly the most well-thought-out buying and selling strategy. But if we’re looking for a short-term gain, a momo play might be just the thing. For example, if a tech company announces some huge smartphone breakthrough, and their stock starts climbing like crazy as a result, we might feel pretty confident buying or short-selling some shares, knowing there’s a really good chance we’ll make some coin in the process. We’re not in it for the long haul, and we really don’t have any personal investment in the company or the smartphone breakthrough, whatever it is. All we’re here to do is use its momentum to our financial advantage.

Related or Semi-related Video

Finance: How does momentum work in inves...1 Views

00:00

and finance Allah shmoop How does Mo mentum work in

00:05

investment returns All right people we have mojo you know

00:11

for a moment way have your groove you invested in

00:14

I'm not here dot com A software company that completely

00:17

anonymous eyes is your presence anywhere on the grid that

00:21

is anywhere and everywhere Big brother thinks you are be

00:23

a mobile phone or e mail or chatbots Thing is

00:26

it makes you anonymous You pay cash upfront to buy

00:29

this thing and poof you're gone The company had $50,000,000

00:33

in revenues and 20,000,000 and expenses last year as word

00:35

of mouth at all It's marketing for it So it

00:37

had 30,000,000 pre tax and 20,000,000 after tax in earnings

00:40

and traded at 20 times earnings for a $400,000,000 valuation

00:44

at its AIPO But then suddenly it got sued by

00:47

the U S And by Chinese governments to disclose the

00:50

whereabouts of Carmen Sandiego Yeah you knew she couldn't hide

00:54

forever But the company declined open its server and big

00:57

fuss ensued Lawyer bills were big but the press for

01:00

the company was free and fantastic and far reaching Many

01:04

cynics thought you paid off the government to sue you

01:07

just for all the free press it would garner So

01:10

the next quarter when the company was supposed to print

01:12

18 cents a share in earnings it actually printed 23

01:16

cents And you note that on its balance sheet it's

01:18

deferred revenues line balloon from 17,000,000 tough 43,000,000 meaning that

01:23

a ton of new sign ups came to the companies

01:26

seeking to you know anonymous eyes themselves So now what

01:29

do you do is an investor The stock has been

01:32

trading around 20 bucks a share with 20,000,000 shares outstanding

01:35

but now all of a sudden it's $32 a share

01:38

The first print after the quarter is announced and you're

01:41

thinking Damn I missed it But have you this mist

01:45

it Resignation is an extremely common mistake among new or

01:49

non professional investors or professional investors who are just not

01:52

very good They don't look at the underlying fundamentals and

01:55

the earnings momentum behind the stock So a pro a

01:58

good one would ask a few questions like Is this

02:01

market saturated like the price to anonymous eyes yourself for

02:05

100 bucks a year so with say $50,000,000 in trailing

02:08

revenues That would mean that 500,000 people have signed up

02:11

to anonymous themselves Don't you think the world market is

02:14

something closer to 100,000,000 people who'd anonymous eyes and then

02:18

maybe you know 100 bucks each Right That's a world

02:21

market of something like $10,000,000,000 And if I'm not here

02:25

dot com own say 30% of that world market Well

02:28

they'd be $3,000,000,000 in revenues and enormous profits So it's

02:32

not like they've already dominated an early tiny market Right

02:36

There are 7,000,000,000 people on this planet and you're assuming

02:39

100,000,000 or 100 over 7000 there Whatever that percentages Yeah

02:44

that would be the market Okay next question How good

02:48

is this business Well to run it It's almost entirely

02:51

about automating a software process that works with phone companies

02:54

and cable companies and anyone else who provides Internet access

02:57

to the masses along with a small army of lawyers

02:59

who send a cease and desist letters toe websites and

03:02

a few other masking app things that company updates every

03:05

now and then Well in return for that identity masking

03:08

of I P address and phone trails while the company

03:11

collects 100 bucks their marginal additional cost on that 100

03:15

very little Maybe a few dollars like the 501,000 customer

03:21

cost the company like three bucks to manage and they

03:23

collect a year's anonima izing cash up front right to

03:27

get paid first Then they anonymized you for a year

03:30

afterwards and most people who buy one year by a

03:33

second and third and fourth And so on the moment

03:35

they don't continue to spend well they lose their anonymity

03:39

and I'm not here dot com is actually evil enough

03:41

so that they put out a mini press release on

03:43

everyone who has Dia Na Nim ized with them so

03:46

that they are well highly incentivized to continue renewing for

03:22

100 bucks a year So then you return to the

03:52

earnings mo mentum story The company just printed 23 cents

03:54

a share and fully tax earnings It was a big

03:57

earnings beat with big things clearly going on with its

04:00

balance sheet The stock's at 32 bucks a share now

04:02

with 20,000,000 shares outstanding giving it evaluation of well just

04:06

over 600,000,000 and anonymous izing is fast becoming a thing

04:10

in America and around the world and I'm not here

04:12

is ideally poised to take advantage of this mega trend

04:16

Could the company have 1,000,000 subscribers paying 100 bucks a

04:18

year this coming year Worldwide absolutely couldn't have 9,000,000 shore

04:24

easily It's not like we're going to run out of

04:25

people So suppose that had 4,000,000 paying 100 bucks And

04:29

this is a total guess because well you have little

04:32

window into the world other than to note that tons

04:34

of partners are voluntarily linking to their website now presumably

04:38

getting commissions for the sale of that $100 anonymous izing

04:41

year And while you can kind of track that number

04:43

if you spend the time so you're thinking well some

04:46

affiliate gets $20 for getting $100 sale for the company

04:50

so they only keep 80 instead of 100 But their

04:53

marginal cost like five bucks or three about something like

04:55

that So yeah that makes sense logically So if the

04:58

company had 2,000,000 paying $100 a year the company would

05:01

be printing $200,000,000 in revenues likely with only marginally more

05:06

costs than the 20,000,000 in operating costs And then well

05:09

then you had in taxes right like there's affiliate fees

05:11

and so on that they'd have to pay So maybe

05:13

the company as ah no $50,000,000 in operating expenses or

05:17

objects to then be taxed on 150,000,000 of operating profit

05:21

to the tune of say 40,000,000 to then have 110,000,000

05:24

in earnings Is that a reasonable estimate Sure given the

05:28

huge amount of press and chaos going on all over

05:30

the world with governments terrified of anonymous citizens and citizens

05:34

loving the freedom of being anonymous Sure 2,000,000 feels easily

05:38

doable this year And if company does these numbers well

05:41

then on 20,000,000 shares outstanding with 110,000,000 in earnings they'd

05:44

be printing something closer to five bucks a share in

05:48

earnings fully tax unlevel earnings and in the process they'll

05:52

have generated over $100,000,000 in cash on their balance sheet

05:55

And with this kind of spectacular growth the company should

05:58

trade at a vastly higher multiple than 20 gones earnings

06:01

more like 30 40 50 maybe even 80 times But

06:04

even if you pick 50 times for your target multiple

06:07

on that five bucks a share in earnings and you

06:10

just ignore the fat cash stash being generated on the

06:13

balance sheet with no debt you get a price target

06:16

of something more like $250 a share in just one

06:19

year Right That's 50 times the five bucks gives you

06:22

to 50 a share Well with the stock trading at

06:25

32 bucks a share now why isn't this a screaming

06:28

mo mentum by Well lots of nervous Nellies will worry

06:32

about the government stepping in to regulate the company But

06:35

can the government regulate them Is it even possible to

06:37

d anonymous eyes in the cloud The company claims that

06:40

it expunge is all of its data And while it

06:43

may be possible Dian Ana my zing would certainly take

06:46

a lot of time And you Khun bet that the

06:48

engineers working for I'm not here are like 300 points

06:53

smarter than the engineers working for government regulators Right So

06:57

it'd take the G men in grey suits a very

06:59

very long time to do harm but yeah Big brother's

07:02

always watching So the trick is to you know pull

07:05

the wool over his eyes and lead your life anonymously

07:08

or at least a CZ anonymously as you can So 00:07:10.982 --> [endTime] good luck with that Yeah

Up Next

Finance: What is an Aggressive Growth Fund, A GO GO Fund, A High Octane Fund?
67 Views

What is an Aggressive Growth Fund, A GO GO Fund, A High Octane Fund? An aggressive growth fund (also referred to as GO GO or high octane) is a type...

Find other enlightening terms in Shmoop Finance Genius Bar(f)