Unbiased Predictor

Finance a la shmoop.. when can the data do you wrong? At least leave you and do

beliefs you probably shouldn't have okay so you know the term caveat emptor

or buyer beware right well the same applies to advice givers [Man approaches woman at psychiatric help stall]

or rather advice give-ees... so here's our little story there's this football

stadium it pulled 65,536 people exactly it's filled the announcer comes on tells

the very cooperative crowd to all stand and take out a quarter from their [Woman announcers addresses football crowd]

pockets magically every attendee has one the announcer she then says alright flip

the coin and despite a few jingles of missed coins...

...alright well everyone flips the

announcer says okay, if you flipped a tails sit down.. there are now 32768 people standing and she says okay

flip again and then a few jingles yeah like if you can't catch your own coin [Persons coins fall to the floor]

should you really even be at a game that's all about catching things anyway

half the people sit she has him do it again 16,384 people are left and again

8,192 people are left and again and again and again and again and again

again again again.... until there were just two people left

standing she says flip again and they do and one gets another head the other gets [Person flips coin on heads]

tail so only Bob is left here Bob the accountant from Reseda, he flipped a head

on his quarter it was a legal quarter sixteen times in a row that fact will [Bobs gravestone appears]

probably be on his tombstone and everyone will be impressed for all

eternity so what is Bob do - well Bob writes books on how to flip heads

he gives lectures he has his own website how to flip heads.com and Chapter four

is on you know on angling the thumb, chapter six is on all the humidity

levels, chapter eight is on what happens if you drop the coin you know Bob we're

looking at you the reality is in real life people would actually listen to him [Man talking in football stadium]

he would sell lots and lots of books when flipping a head be sure you've

thoroughly washed your hands and I recommend propel you know that sticky

stuff and don't forget to let your fingernails grow out a little bit Bob

yes Bob this guy formerly this guy is now the expert on how [Bob with two women]

flip a head point here when you take advice about patterns particularly from

Wall Street commissioning kind of people be sure you know why and how it's being

given and what your in theory paying them for that loving advice where did

the data come from and how did the giver become the expert and was this

real expertness or just odds and luck and everything at work do they

really know what they're talking about or you know where they just Bob the

lucky flipper [Bob dancing with two women in a club]