Value Averaging
Categories: Trading
When he was ten years old, Buck put together a list of things he wanted to accomplish by the time he was 30. Now, at the ripe old age of 27, he realizes he has two things left on his list: walk on the moon, and have $10,000 invested. Well, the moon thing doesn’t look like it’s going to pan out, but there’s definitely something he can do about that $10k investment portfolio.
He’s going to get his “value averaging” on, a technique whereby we meet a future investment goal by adding to or subtracting from our portfolio account every month or quarter. Value averaging, or VA, is a strategy designed to help investors reach their goals regardless of whether the market is up or down, and while some say VA produces higher-than-average returns, critics say “nah.”
So...how does it work? Let’s get back to Buck. If he wants $10,000 invested in 36 months, that breaks down to approximately $278 per month. So, in that first month, Buck invests $278. Now let’s say the market goes wild and he ends up making a profit of $150. His Month Two target investment amount is $556 (that’s $278 x 2), but he’s already got $428 in there. Which means that, instead of putting in another $278 this month, he’s only going to put in $128, since that will bring him up to $556. Now let’s say the market falls apart the next month and he ends up losing $250, bringing his account balance back down to $326. Since he’s supposed to be at $834 by Month Three, now he’s going to end up putting in $508.
The goal is that, no matter what the market does, Buck either puts in or takes out the amount of money necessary to keep him exactly on track for his $10k goal.
Related or Semi-related Video
Finance: What is Average Down?8 Views
Finance, a la shmoop what is average down or dollar cost averaging well remember the
movie Black Hawk Down, Navy SEALs who were shot down in Somalia then bravely [Solider shooting a rifle]
shot their way to safety until they ran out of bullets yeah [Guy looks upset that he's out of ammo]
well that has nothing to do with average down although you'd think it was an [Guy holding popcorn in the theater]
anthem for how we select politicians in this country but we digress when you
average down you thought you were oh so clever in paying eighty two dollars a
share for slip and slide roof shingles sounded like a real winner at the time
well the stock could hit par or a hundred bucks a share and not really par [Guy sliding on some roof tiles in the rain]
but it just sounds cool when equity investors call out par for an equity so
the stock was 100 bucks and you believe the brokers you were sure it'd be [Clock ticking by]
two hundred dollars in two years so you bought and then they missed their next
quarter and then their next you still are a big believer in the stock if you [Girl looking unhappy at the newspaper]
weren't you would take your losses but if you had conviction at eighty two
dollars a share well you still have conviction it'll get to $200 soon right
all right so now the stock sits at 47 bucks a share and you buy another [Stock price chart showing the price going down]
hundred shares to add to the hundred you paid eighty two dollars a share for
seven months ago and then they miss another quarter and you buy another
hundred shares now at the bargain basement price of $35 a share well you
bought in three separate tranches each one cheaper than the next the first one
cost you 100 times eighty two bucks or eighty two hundred dollars, nice job
buying there... second tranche cost you 100 times 47 bucks or 47 hundred dollars [Working being written out]
and applying concepts beyond calculus here the third tranche cost you a
hundred times thirty-five dollars or thirty five hundred dollars well what
did you do you averaged down your initial cost from 82 bucks a share to a final
average cost of 82 hundred plus forty seven hundred plus thirty five hundred
divided by three hundred shares you own which is about 54 sixty-seven a share
your dollar cost average then is $54 sixty-seven cents and you should also
note that although the number one reason to average down is because you're a [Guy sat on a roof]
believer in the stock long term, a second more Machiavellian reason at least if
you're a professional money manager is that it looks a whole lot
better when you report to shareholders that you bought in at a lower average
price when eventually it goes up again so nice going there would be Warren B [Stock price going up again on the chart]
let's hope that SNS shingle starts including an inflatable rescue mattress [Boy sliding down the roof]
with every purchase and every quarter they report [Boy flies off the roof, into a tree and then falls to the floor]